Superior Acuña Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said: Depends on how viable you think it is to use that tactic I suppose. Are you expecting to bag loads of long range goals sustainability, or getting lucky? My impression was that it's a tactic because they know they're good at it, rather than just getting lucky. Divna like. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, Superior Acuña said: My impression was that it's a tactic because they know they're good at it, rather than just getting lucky. Divna like. Could be yeah, I'm just saying whether the tactic is viable depends on which is which. Guess the reason xG is low for long shots is that they are hard to score. But of course some players outperform xG in whatever situation they excel at. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucasol Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 7 hours ago, Deuce said: 4th fewest goals conceded, though also 6th fewest goals scored…hence the turgidness Moyesball. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 8 hours ago, Superior Acuña said: My impression was that it's a tactic because they know they're good at it, rather than just getting lucky. Divna like. Getting outplayed and winning goals via world class strikes cannot be considered a tactic surely? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Looks like Villa are returning to the mean a bit. Happened with Forest last year/this year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Variance explains parts of the table as much as anything else. Villa and their long range goals, which surprise, surprise have dried up. Szoboszlai has earned Liverpool 4 points from free kicks. Chelsea are +6 in penalties for vs. penalties against, first in the league by I think 3 or 4. Arsenal have the highest % of set piece goals for any title challenger ever and are the only club in the league to not give away a penalty (hilariously). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, timeEd32 said: Variance explains parts of the table as much as anything else. Villa and their long range goals, which surprise, surprise have dried up. Szoboszlai has earned Liverpool 4 points from free kicks. Chelsea are +6 in penalties for vs. penalties against, first in the league by I think 3 or 4. Arsenal have the highest % of set piece goals for any title challenger ever and are the only club in the league to not give away a penalty (hilariously). This isn't variance imo. Arsenal play for set pieces and are the best at it in the league. They also have the 3rd/4th most possession, play the most controlling style of football in the league. That's going to lead to fewer penalties conceded. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, The College Dropout said: This isn't variance imo. Arsenal play for set pieces and are the best at it in the league. They also have the 3rd/4th most possession, play the most controlling style of football in the league. That's going to lead to fewer penalties conceded. To an extent yes, but they could probably be called for a foul on a significant portion of set pieces (at both ends) and the fact they aren't carries some luck. It's also them taking advantage of the horrific state of refereeing. Another example where I'd say it's a combination of skill and variance is Villa are the only team in the league to not concede a goal after 85 minutes. The fact it's a low number is not just luck, but the fact it's 0 is good fortune. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 10 minutes ago, timeEd32 said: To an extent yes, but they could probably be called for a foul on a significant portion of set pieces (at both ends) and the fact they aren't carries some luck. It's also them taking advantage of the horrific state of refereeing. Another example where I'd say it's a combination of skill and variance is Villa are the only team in the league to not concede a goal after 85 minutes. The fact it's a low number is not just luck, but the fact it's 0 is good fortune. Ok fair. I just don’t think that explains why Arsenal are top. They have been the best team in the league. They play for corners, have excellent deliveries from both sides and half the team is 6ft+ with one of the best headers of the ball in world football in the team. And that silly set piece guy is good. Overall good at set pieces isn’t variance or explains the league position. Likewise low pens conceded by the best defence facing thr fewest goalscoring opps is likely to happen. Maybe not 0 penalties but less Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Throw everything at the derby, 3 week break then Bruno and Miley back. 6 out of 7 (draw with Arsenal) and see where it gets us Kind of no excuses now, good break then a game a week with a full squad Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbo_11 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 With Palace going through they will have a match against Fiorentina a few days before they play us, you would hope the additional time we have and some focus on one game a week will put us in a good position going into this one. The run in might also catch Nottm Forest and Arsenal should they progress in their competitions so we need to make the most of this. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 18/03/2026 at 13:01, The College Dropout said: Arsenal play for set pieces and are the best at it in the league. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Champions League, Pulis style. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guillaume Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Win on Sunday in a must, then we can look at the European race. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novocastrian Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 hours ago, Guillaume said: Win on Sunday in a must, then we can look at the European race. If scores go in our favour the weekend we could be 4 points off a CL place with 7 games to play. This could happen you know! This could happen! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Dancer Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 4 hours ago, Guillaume said: Win on Sunday in a must, then we can look at the European race. Yep. The season really is on the line on Sunday imo. Lose and we'd be practically going through the motions until May, not to mention having to live with the fact them cunts had taken at least 4 points off us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWMag Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 It is a massive game obvious reasons aside; after this we can have a mini reset with the international break and going back to 1 game a week, I’d really back us to have a strong end to the season, but I feel like we can’t afford to drop points before then, so with little prep time for Sunday it’s a huge game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 20 minutes ago, Chicken Dancer said: Yep. The season really is on the line on Sunday imo. Lose and we'd be practically going through the motions until May, not to mention having to live with the fact them cunts had taken at least 4 points off us. This isn't true though. If 8th gets Europe then worst case scenario we're four points off that position with *triple checks* 21 points to play for. Having the mackems do the double over us would be an immense failure and borderline shameful, no two ways about it, but it wouldn't end the season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Dancer Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, Yorkie said: This isn't true though. If 8th gets Europe then worst case scenario we're four points off that position with *triple checks* 21 points to play for. Having the mackems do the double over us would be an immense failure and borderline shameful, no two ways about it, but it wouldn't end the season. Yes and no. I don't think anybody involved in the club (playing/coaching staff + executive level) would be particularly arsed about qualifying for the Conference League - in fact I'd say they'd probably prefer we didn't. Obviously a chance of Europa still with 21pts to play for, but it would require being nigh on perfect for 7 games and I'm not sure we have that in us - I've not seen any evidence of it in 25/26 that's for sure. Losing on Sunday would knock the stuffing out of the fanbase, certainly the home crowd where there's been more than murmurs in recent league games (Man Utd aside). Obviously not aligned with the vast majority of idiots on Twitter etc, but losing on Sunday could really see the home crowd (start to) turn IMO. The fixture list is kind or cruel depending on how you view it, you'd certainly take what we have left but when you break it down; two games against our bogey sides, a trip to Forest who'll be fighting for their lives, a tricky game at Palace and a game at the soon-to-be champions at 17:30. Fulham and West Ham could hopefully both be dead rubbers (for them) depending on if West Ham continue their recent form. Sunday is a must win if we want Europa next season, and I think it's heightened by the fact there's a 3 week gap until we next play. Win and go into the break knowing we have Bruno et al to return and you really will start to believe we can do it. Lose and the mood will probably be at it's lowest for a while. It's a huge game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSG Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Win on Sunday and we’ll get Europa IMO. Then we’ll win the fucker in Frankfurt next May. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 40 minutes ago, Chicken Dancer said: Yep. The season really is on the line on Sunday imo. Lose and we'd be practically going through the motions until May, not to mention having to live with the fact them cunts had taken at least 4 points off us. Nah. We are the type of team that needs a strong end to the season. Even if it’s just the last 2-3 games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 7 minutes ago, Chicken Dancer said: Yes and no. I don't think anybody involved in the club (playing/coaching staff + executive level) would be particularly arsed about qualifying for the Conference League - in fact I'd say they'd probably prefer we didn't. Obviously a chance of Europa still with 21pts to play for, but it would require being nigh on perfect for 7 games and I'm not sure we have that in us - I've not seen any evidence of it in 25/26 that's for sure. Losing on Sunday would knock the stuffing out of the fanbase, certainly the home crowd where there's been more than murmurs in recent league games (Man Utd aside). Obviously not aligned with the vast majority of idiots on Twitter etc, but losing on Sunday could really see the home crowd (start to) turn IMO. The fixture list is kind or cruel depending on how you view it, you'd certainly take what we have left but when you break it down; two games against our bogey sides, a trip to Forest who'll be fighting for their lives, a tricky game at Palace and a game at the soon-to-be champions at 17:30. Fulham and West Ham could hopefully both be dead rubbers (for them) depending on if West Ham continue their recent form. Sunday is a must win if we want Europa next season, and I think it's heightened by the fact there's a 3 week gap until we next play. Win and go into the break knowing we have Bruno et al to return and you really will start to believe we can do it. Lose and the mood will probably be at it's lowest for a while. It's a huge game. Highly likely the Arsenal game ends up being midweek now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWN Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 We must win this to have any hope of sneaking into Europe Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 28 minutes ago, Chicken Dancer said: Yes and no. I don't think anybody involved in the club (playing/coaching staff + executive level) would be particularly arsed about qualifying for the Conference League - in fact I'd say they'd probably prefer we didn't. Obviously a chance of Europa still with 21pts to play for, but it would require being nigh on perfect for 7 games and I'm not sure we have that in us - I've not seen any evidence of it in 25/26 that's for sure. The Conference League offers us a chance of increasing our coefficient ranking, which in turn gives you more money for future UEFA qualifications. Crystal Palace this year have so far added 17.357 to their score, and they have had a poor time really, failing to win 6 games. They still have potentially 5 more games to go as well. The Conference League may not be as lucrative as other European football, but it gives us a chance of gaining more money from future European football, and gives us a realistic chance of winning more silverware, and with it qualification for the Europa League. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Apologies if posted, but I’m assuming this isn’t true ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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