Kid Icarus Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 The weird thing with Villa is that they've been like this for a while, not just this season but over a few years imo. It's harder to say it's not sustainable when it's somehow a bit of a model for them that's been successful. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ponsaelius Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 25 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: The weird thing with Villa is that they've been like this for a while, not just this season but over a few years imo. It's harder to say it's not sustainable when it's somehow a bit of a model for them that's been successful. If you look at the xG tables last few years they've been more or less where expected give it take a couple of places. This year has been a different story. Tbh I think PSR is the main reason for their drop off. Their squad is undoubtedly weaker than it was last season and they have the same issue as us with key players aging out and not being able to afford to replace them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 6 minutes ago, ponsaelius said: If you look at the xG tables last few years they've been more or less where expected give it take a couple of places. This year has been a different story. Tbh I think PSR is the main reason for their drop off. Their squad is undoubtedly weaker than it was last season and they have the same issue as us with key players aging out and not being able to afford to replace them. I agree on the position to xG position thing broadly, but I think even in 23/24 it went beyond that and the devil was in the details a bit and they were overperforming in a different way to now. They were in and around 4th, up to 2nd at one point and did have some really good performances but every time I watched them I thought the way they were playing was suicidal and unsustainable. Their high line was insane and kept getting broken, but they kept getting away with it because the opposition's finishing failed to punish them. So I think they were always succeeding on that knife edge - this season it seems more like the knife edge that they've been succeeding on is either taking the very limited chances they get each game, or scoring from distance. It might be a rivalry bias thing from me as well, but aside from a few matches (PSG or us at home for example) I've never watched Villa and thought they're a team that are really all that good. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
John P Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, Froggy said: Just realised Sunderland are bottom three in expected points too. It's mad, they've been like that all season. It will come back to bite them next season (if they continue in that way), the drop off has already started Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cort Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 18 minutes ago, John P said: It's mad, they've been like that all season. It will come back to bite them next season (if they continue in that way), the drop off has already started Yes, their current attack reminds me of 01/02 when they stayed up with only 29 goals despite having Philips in their team, and then went down the year after. Hopefully it will be the same next season, combined with the crisp packets on the pitch, and the bews. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Previous seasons Villa finished where they were expected or close. This season Villa have been largely poor every time I’ve seen them but got a lot of results early. I think a lot of Watkins poor form has been down to a loss of confidence partly caused by Emery and Villa constantly trying to sell him and bringing in replacements. Emery was starting Rashford ahead of Watkins as a striker. That’s bound to impact his confidence. Emery has also persisted with his style which has not been working. They can’t ply through PL teams in the middle anymore. Chelsea tried to do similar to us on the weekend - no bueno. The long shot stuff has dried up. That’s how they beat us. Yeh Sunderland have been riding a wave all season. Next season will be interesting. They’ll need to be better. It does show how far tremendous spirit, work rate and a bit of luck can take a team. I think Eddie has that ability to bind a team and that’s worth 4-10 points a season. For a lot of old school managers that was their entire coaching output. And it made a massive difference. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infinitely Content Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Villa were a brilliant side to watch a few years ago. The quality of their play has decreased season upon season, same as us really. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 minutes ago, Infinitely Content said: Villa were a brilliant side to watch a few years ago. The quality of their play has decreased season upon season, same as us really. Losing Tielemans is massive for them. But they were poor statisticaly with him anyway. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctor Zaius Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Unless there is a turnaround in form, I think Sunderland will look at the underlying numbers and the poor second half of the season and peddle Le Bris in the summer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 6 minutes ago, Doctor Zaius said: Unless there is a turnaround in form, I think Sunderland will look at the underlying numbers and the poor second half of the season and peddle Le Bris in the summer. He’s probably the reason they aren’t down in the shit tbf. He’s set them up well, in terms of getting results. They don’t have the quality to be more expansive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decky Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 I have to say I was pretty much done with the league because I thought we'd never catch Brentford. 8th was up for grabs sure but the way we were playing after Everton I thought we'd be doing well to get top 10. After two brilliant wins and a decent fixture list for the rest of the season I'm all in again. We could be 7th this weekend. Everton at home to Chelsea and Brentford away to Leeds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decky Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just seen as well that we've 3 weeks off after the mackems. Great chance to reset then go for it. If we go out tomorrow night it'll be one game a week for the rest of the season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
54 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Man United fixture congestion is completely the opposite of ours at them moment, due to them not being in Europe and going out of the domestic competitions early. Between our game against them a couple of weeks back on the 4th March, and their game against Leeds on the the 13th April, they only have 2 games, in what is basically 5 weeks. On the flip side we have 6 as a minimum, potentially more if get through against Barcelona tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, Decky said: I have to say I was pretty much done with the league because I thought we'd never catch Brentford. 8th was up for grabs sure but the way we were playing after Everton I thought we'd be doing well to get top 10. After two brilliant wins and a decent fixture list for the rest of the season I'm all in again. We could be 7th this weekend. Everton at home to Chelsea and Brentford away to Leeds. Sunday is huge in the context of the league, as well as the other obvious reasons. Putting five points between us and anyone in this 7th-14th mini-league is a big deal. Palace don't play and Brighton (also on 40) have Liverpool, so we could put a canny-sized gap between us and three teams, not just Sunderland. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, 54 said: Man United fixture congestion is completely the opposite of ours at them moment, due to them not being in Europe and going out of the domestic competitions early. Between our game against them a couple of weeks back on the 4th March, and their game against Leeds on the the 13th April, they only have 2 games, in what is basically 5 weeks. On the flip side we have 6 as a minimum, potentially more if get through against Barcelona tomorrow. We've been there. Feels like under Ten Hag we had played 62/63 games in a season and that was with us going out of the Europa League at the quarters stage. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decky Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Everton are definitely beating Chelsea this weekend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLC Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5th is an outside chance lads Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 If the FA Cup final is won by one of the usual lot, will 8th place qualify for Conference League? I can definitely see 7th-placed Europa League as a possibility. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 games and I reckon we'll be above Chelsea Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronson333 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa currently all in dogshit form, if anything we’re looking ok. Still a long shot but not impossible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 34 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said: If the FA Cup final is won by one of the usual lot, will 8th place qualify for Conference League? I can definitely see 7th-placed Europa League as a possibility. Yes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
toon25 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 7 hours ago, Decky said: I have to say I was pretty much done with the league because I thought we'd never catch Brentford. 8th was up for grabs sure but the way we were playing after Everton I thought we'd be doing well to get top 10. After two brilliant wins and a decent fixture list for the rest of the season I'm all in again. We could be 7th this weekend. Everton at home to Chelsea and Brentford away to Leeds. That Everton are 8th is mental. They've been absolutely shit every time I've seen them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) Doesn't the Villa xG disparity partially just show a weakness of xG in assessing a team that has players who are effective at shooting from range and incorporate this into their tactics? From a neutral perspective, I'd rather see Villa get a CL spot than the others. From our perspective though, seems it's best for us they're the ones to miss out. The rest are going to be able to spend and attract more than us regardless, whereas Villa are similar to us and we don't want them getting their reputation or PSR power ahead of us. Edited March 17 by Superior Acuña Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deuce Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 45 minutes ago, toon25 said: That Everton are 8th is mental. They've been absolutely shit every time I've seen them. 4th fewest goals conceded, though also 6th fewest goals scored…hence the turgidness Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said: Doesn't the Villa xG disparity partially just show a weakness of xG in assessing a team that has players who are effective at shooting from range and incorporate this into their tactics? Depends on how viable you think it is to use that tactic I suppose. Are you expecting to bag loads of long range goals sustainability, or getting lucky? Edited March 17 by AyeDubbleYoo Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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