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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
in Football

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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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afar

afar

Posted
Posted

I still think our fate lies in what we do business wise before the window "slams shut". Get that striker (that puts the in the back of the net) and a winger (you are actually going to give a chance to and play) them we'll be alright, we still have enough quality to get out of this mess without those new recruits but in order to do that the form and attitude shown in the last couple of games needs to carry on for a sustained period, that's been our problem a lot this season, in patches we've looked good but not been consistent enough.

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Teasy

Teasy

Posted
Posted

Some stats to ridicule/ignore...

 

  • We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks.
  • We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most).
  • We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league.
  • Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players).
  • We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134.
  • 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham.
  • We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35).
  • And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league.

 

* xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals

 

Hold on, Villa have a current goal difference of -20, Sunderland -18 while our current goal difference is -15.  Yet they reckon our goal difference will improve to -13 but still be the worst in the league? :mackems:  Great example of why you shouldn't extrapolate from stats like these :lol:

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timeEd32

timeEd32

Posted
Posted

 

Some stats to ridicule/ignore...

 

  • We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks.
  • We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most).
  • We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league.
  • Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players).
  • We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134.
  • 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham.
  • We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35).
  • And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league.

 

* xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals

 

Hold on, Villa have a current goal difference of -20, Sunderland -18 while our current goal difference is -15.  Yet they reckon our goal difference will improve to 13 but still be the worst in the league? :mackems:  Great example of why you shouldn't extrapolate from stats like these :lol:

 

They aren't expecting it to improve. It could be more indicative of future performance, however, it doesn't weight recent performance more heavily. This is a projection of where it should be based on the data. Obviously things happen in football matches and all sports that are unexpected and one or two games in a sample size of 20 can skew the data pretty badly.

 

Also, this is a pretty new stat that is still being worked on year by year so it's by no means perfect.

 

That said, it has us with the worst expected goal difference when in reality we are 3rd worst. Sunderland and Villa are in 19th and 18 and this metric has Arsenal, City, and Spurs as the top 3.

 

Where it differs greatly is having Chelsea 4th with a +7.6 and Leicester 7th at +3.4. Also, Palace 17th with -10.1.

 

None of these are that surprising though - Chelsea have underachieved, Leicester are a counter attacking side that have overachieved, and Pardew's teams routinely have a GD difference that's not indicative of their place in the table.

 

Anyway, I hesitated to even post that stat as I knew everyone would ignore the others some of which are pretty interesting but as more and more work is done to improve football statistics metrics like this will become commonplace and fairly reliable indicators of future performance.

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NG32

NG32

Posted
Posted

Like I said, I'm still at a 7. A half decent win at home, couple of signings and everyone's thinks its job done. We can't string a couple of wins together.  It's one step forward and a step backwards. Dropping points to other relegation candidates is not a good sign. 

 

 

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