Relegationometer

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Conjo said:

Some spectacular doomers on here. Things haven't looked this bright in years. We just put in the most entertaining performance since Rafas last game in charge against Fulham and we have a transfer window with ambitious owners coming up in a month. 

 

Are you guys just dooming so much in order to make the feeling of staying up even better?

 

I'm more confident of staying up now than I ever was with Bruce in charge up until the points where we were mathematically secure.

We’re 5 adrift of 17th and 7 adrift of the rest of the league. We’ll likely get 6-7 points if we’re lucky before New Year. We’re fucked, man. I do think we’ll piss promotion, though and I’m completely fine with it.

[loki679]

1 hour ago, GWN said:

 

The worst post ever 

 

I do love the hyperbole in this thread

[Hhtoon]

13 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

We’re 5 adrift of 17th and 7 adrift of the rest of the league. We’ll likely get 6-7 points if we’re lucky before New Year. We’re fucked, man. I do think we’ll piss promotion, though and I’m completely fine with it.

 

Man City and Liverpool are the only "as good as" 0 pointers out of our run til New Year.

 

Everton and Leicester are bottom half

Man Utd are on the slide

Norwich and Burnley are "should wins" 

Arsenal - point would be nice

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

8 hours ago, Oregon_Geordie said:

7.

 

I don't agree we're gone....yet.

I do think the next 3 games are massively critical.

 

From today, I think having Dubs in we'd have won.

I also don't see many teams down there with a front three/four like us.

We just need to get the balance and look a little tighter at the back.

 

If we continue to get the fitness up and win 2 of the next 3 I think we're still totally in the mix. If we can keep the gap to a minimal of 3/4 points by January I think we'll be ok.

 

-

Keep the Faith.

 

Only seen highlights, but from what I've seen and looking at the stats, seems to be a world away from the previous game.

Which to me can only be a good thing.

 

Like people have said, he's only had a week or two with the lads, get miggy up to speed, tighten up at the back and things will start to look brighter.

 

After the arseholes performance last night, they were dire, -  even a win might be on the cards next Saturday.

 

I'm going to have 3-1 for every remaining game - ones got to come in eventually.

 

Still keeping the faith - believe in  Eddie.

[McCormick]

Stating the obvious but 10+ points between now and January and we can do it (providing we aren’t more than 6pts adrift at that time). We’ll get max 8 though…

 

 

 

 

[GWN]

Small margins effectively relegating us by the looks of it .

 

Darlow decision to keep him in the team , bad .

Keeping Bruce , too late 

Not having a manager lined up , costly

JL miss yesterday 

Murphy miss Watford

etc.

Eddie Howe getting COVID the night before his first game 

 

It all smells of relegation even this early , I believe this group will fight all the way but I feel the gods want us down and I do believe we aren’t allowed anything nice ,I sat watching yesterday in disbelief at Brentford’s third goal and said to my lad we are fucking cursed . We deserved the win yesterday 100% on reflection but for one or two disappointing team players and small margins.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by GWN

[Danh1]

29 minutes ago, GWN said:

Small margins effectively relegating us by the looks of it .

 

Darlow decision to keep him in the team , bad .

Keeping Bruce , too late 

Not having a manager lined up , costly

JL miss yesterday 

Murphy miss Watford

etc.

Eddie Howe getting COVID the night before his first game 

 

It all smells of relegation even this early , I believe this group will fight all the way but I feel the gods want us down and I do believe we aren’t allowed anything nice ,I sat watching yesterday in disbelief at Brentford’s third goal and said to my lad we are fucking cursed . We deserved the win yesterday 100% on reflection but for one or two disappointing team players and small margins.

 

 

 

 

 

Wilson getting fouled at Brighton.

Lascelles brainless penalty against Southampton.

 

4 points there. 

[Robster]

It's fucking stressful caring again

[Raconteur]

15 hours ago, McCormick said:

Where’s the lad who said 1. 

 

 

Yup, even after that draw and the other results, still there.

 

Performances are trending upwards, and results will follow suit soon. We were a Joelinton miskick away from collecting a win. There are only three unbeatable teams this season. There is the January winidow.

 

Basically all the stuff Fantail Breeze, Yorkie and wormy have been saying since you posted this (at about 3am local )

[The Butcher]

We'll have a chance for points in every single game bar Chelsea, City and Liverpool and probably Man Utd if they get someone semi-competent in.

[gbandit]

I’m a 9, going down would feel shit but to be honest, we’ve got our club back. That’s what matters, I’d have taken going down to league one if it meant getting rid of Ashley. Not going to fret about relegation as we’ll come straight back up. If we do stay up though, we’ll be on a euphoric high 

[GWN]

1 hour ago, Danh1 said:

Wilson getting fouled at Brighton.

Lascelles brainless penalty against Southampton.

 

4 points there. 

 

Yep , cursed man 

[maze]

10. However, with a bit of luck and the right signings in January, we might avoid relegation and get that precious 17th place.
Let's be honest, the state of this club... Most of the players are championship standard at best.

[Raconteur]

Just to turn the votes into a betting analogy - if you vote 9, then you've saying we're a 10/1 chance to stay up. Would you genuinely offer someone 10/1 odds wagering with mates?

 

The reverse might also be true - by voting 1, would I offer 10/1 odds on us being relegated? Sure I would, but I don't have friends to wager with

 

What are English markets offering for us to be relegated? Sportsbet (Australia) is offering $1.72 - I have no idea what that is in fractions, but it seems like the bookies are saying nothing like $1.10

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Raconteur

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I just think whether we’re more likely to go down or stay up. At the moment I think it’s clear we’re more likely to go down, but it could change relatively quickly. 

[TheGuv]

Small margins are important and certainly change the mood.
 

Had Joelinton stayed on his feet and scored and we won 4-3, I’m sure everyone would be much more confident we’d survive.

 

Had Fraser not got a Nick of the ball when Brentford were through late on and we lost 4-3, the doom in here would have been even worse.

 

We’re in a terrible position and on paper we’re as good as down. However, anyone with eyes can see how much we’ve improved in 2 weeks. I really think we could get 7 points from the next 3 games, as we improve by 2-3% every game in fitness, tactics, ability etc. 
 

I love caring again.

[Dr Venkman]

Cautiously optimistic. I think the upturn in form that Howe brings and January signings give us a pretty good chance of winning 11 games. I’m really not interested in ‘but who would come to us?’ arguments because they’ve been proved nonsense since Keegan signed as a player. There’s a long, long list of quality managers and players who have joined NUFC when things haven’t been great.

[Raconteur]

15 minutes ago, Dr Venkman said:

Cautiously optimistic. I think the upturn in form that Howe brings and January signings give us a pretty good chance of winning 11 games. I’m really not interested in ‘but who would come to us?’ arguments because they’ve been proved nonsense since Keegan signed as a player. There’s a long, long list of quality managers and players who have joined NUFC when things haven’t been great.

 

Yup, every player in the Championship, every international worried about their World Cup spot because they're not playing, every mercenary player. Short term loans,  loan-to-buys. Etcetera

 

They've got six weeks to assess the weaknesses in the squad and identify targets. The squad 5-8 points "adrift" is going to be significantly different from the one fighting at the pointy end of the season.

[Ikon]

Really need to get the new players in quicker than quick. Hopefully all but done backstage before the window opens. Imperative that we don't waste time. 

[leffe186]

1 hour ago, maze said:

10. However, with a bit of luck and the right signings in January, we might avoid relegation and get that precious 17th place…

Well then it’s not a 10, surely?

[loki679]

47 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

Well then it’s not a 10, surely?

 

DON'T BRING LOGIC INTO THIS THREAD

[Mattoon]

This team under Bruce goes down every time, what Howe has done with the team in 10 days cannot be overstated, some of the players he only had for 3 days before the game. Another week of training, Almiron and Dubravka back in the team, we can only continue to improve. Let's not forget Howe has recovered from much worse than this as a manager, albeit in a lower league. I'm worried, don't get me wrong, but anything more than a 5 or 6 is emotional at this point. See where we are by February and then bring out the 10s and 1s.

[The Bonk]

I think we’ll survive by the skin of our teeth. We’re going to end up anywhere from 12th to 16th come May. (Bruce fluked his way to that mark by pure luck)

 

The bottom half of the table will be incredibly tight, but most of these clubs don’t have the spending power we do. That’s our trump card for survival, outspend around us, go on a run and finish the season strong.

 

Most of us here are still conditioned to expect the worst from 14 years of the fat man and the last 2 years of clueless cabbage head.

 

Get any sort of points from Arsenal to keep momentum going and win our games at home, then roll on January and May survival!

[Yorkie]

Last five games are Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City sandwiched in-between six pointers versus Norwich and Burnley. Let's hope the situation has improved quite a bit by then.

[Fantail Breeze]

7 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

Last five games are Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City sandwiched in-between six pointers versus Norwich and Burnley. Let's hope the situation has improved quite a bit by then.

 

All three of them will potentially be on the beach by that point mind. Ideal time to play them technically.

 

Assuming they have nothing to play for at that point, obviously. Could do with Chelsea pulling away.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Fantail Breeze