TRon Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Anyone dare to vote less than 5? I'm on a 5 but if I had to put money on who would stay up it would be us. So I suppose I'm sort of 4.5 really. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I've just went back the last few years on Statto. Typically 36 points is enough to keep teams up, there have been one or two exceptions but on average 36 points is about right. Interestingly Sunderland's end of season form isn't all that impressive, only one occasion in the last 3-4 years have they managed to gain more than 4 points from their final 4 games. Also teams who do end in the relegation zone have rarely won one of their final 4-5 games. It seems that a little bit of momentum is enough for you to climb out and as we are so far the team showing that momentum typical of survivors it looks encouraging for us. Hopefully the trend continues and the Sunderland continue their poor end of season form along with Norwich. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I've just went back the last few years on Statto. Typically 36 points is enough to keep teams up, there have been one or two exceptions but on average 36 points is about right. Interestingly Sunderland's end of season form isn't all that impressive, only one occasion in the last 3-4 years have they managed to gain more than 4 points from their final 4 games. Also teams who do end in the relegation zone have rarely won one of their final 4-5 games. It seems that a little bit of momentum is enough for you to climb out and as we are so far the team showing that momentum typical of survivors it looks encouraging for us. Hopefully the trend continues and the Sunderland continue their poor end of season form along with Norwich. In terms of typical form, most teams finishing bottom six don't get that many points in their final fixtures. That's true and is reassuring. If there is a difference this year, it is that us under Rafa and Sunderland under post-transfer window Fathead are very different teams to those fielded earlier in the season, resulting in a mismatch between where the teams are in the table and the present way they are playing. fwiw, I think Norwich are gone because there are no goals in their team. I'd be more confident about our chances if the mackems hadn't grabbed that point at Stoke, but if we go out and beat Villa, it will pile the pressure on them. That alone could be enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I was on 5 before today but now on a 10 as I can't see how we'll get over all of these injuries which are guaranteed to happen over the next 2 weeks. We're as good as gone. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I've just went back the last few years on Statto. Typically 36 points is enough to keep teams up, there have been one or two exceptions but on average 36 points is about right. Interestingly Sunderland's end of season form isn't all that impressive, only one occasion in the last 3-4 years have they managed to gain more than 4 points from their final 4 games. Also teams who do end in the relegation zone have rarely won one of their final 4-5 games. It seems that a little bit of momentum is enough for you to climb out and as we are so far the team showing that momentum typical of survivors it looks encouraging for us. Hopefully the trend continues and the Sunderland continue their poor end of season form along with Norwich. In terms of typical form, most teams finishing bottom six don't get that many points in their final fixtures. That's true and is reassuring. If there is a difference this year, it is that us under Rafa and Sunderland under post-transfer window Fathead are very different teams to those fielded earlier in the season, resulting in a mismatch between where the teams are in the table and the present way they are playing. fwiw, I think Norwich are gone because there are no goals in their team. I'd be more confident about our chances if the mackems hadn't grabbed that point at Stoke, but if we go out and beat Villa, it will pile the pressure on them. That alone could be enough. The point I was referring too was that typically the team to survive is out of the relegation zone at his stage and typically not many more points are needed at this stage of the season for the other clubs. One exception where over 36 points was needed was when teams with 39 went down, however at this stage of the season those who finished on 39 or higher had more points. The only worrying stats is one season where 37 was enough to keep you safe or go down depending on GD. Also despite the feeling that Sunderland have a good end of season this is actually rare, the majority of seasons they get about 4 points from their last few games. A season when they did have a decent finish and finished with more than 4 points in the final few games was a season when they were clear of the relegation zone and finished well above it. So in summary the team who is already out of the relegation zone (even Liecester were at this stage of the season) and the team gaining points now (us) are the team who survive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Agree everything is in our favour now, just wish it wasn't so close. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anon Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 So in summary the team who is already out of the relegation zone (even Liecester were at this stage of the season) and the team gaining points now (us) are the team who survive. So the team who aren't in the relegation zone and are in form stay up? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 So in summary the team who is already out of the relegation zone (even Liecester were at this stage of the season) and the team gaining points now (us) are the team who survive. So the team who aren't in the relegation zone and are in form stay up? Sorry typo. The team who arn't in the relegation and are in form typically stay up and typically don't usually need many more points as the teams below them typically don't gain many. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmojorisin75 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we? really hard to see that happening tbh Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Was reading some article about this the other day. Implied percentage chance of survival at 36 points was about 37%, jumps up to about 59% at 37 points. edit: found it: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/11469196/Premier-League-relegation-battle-how-many-points-do-you-need-to-stay-up.html Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole_Toonfan Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we? really hard to see that happening tbh Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elliottman Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we? really hard to see that happening tbh Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me. Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmojorisin75 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we? really hard to see that happening tbh Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me. Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either. Can't see them losing two home games at all, would be very surprised if they did. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elliottman Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we? really hard to see that happening tbh Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me. Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either. Can't see them losing two home games at all, would be very surprised if they did. Sure, but it's not inconceivable. like I say, if Chelsea can beat them that everton game brings huge pressure. fuck knows, like K.I says, we could run through every single scenario. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmojorisin75 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home. same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we? really hard to see that happening tbh Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me. Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either. Can't see them losing two home games at all, would be very surprised if they did. Sure, but it's not inconceivable. like I say, if Chelsea can beat them that everton game brings huge pressure. fuck knows, like K.I says, we could run through every single scenario. i didn't say it was inconceivable like, just it was hard to see it happening, which i think it is tbh Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heron Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 us to win at Villa, mackems and Norwich both get draws. This. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 The pressure on these two next week if we win and they don't will be massive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Just to let people know, Norwich have an early KO on Saturday. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total fucking idiot. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total fucking idiot. I'll be astonished if that's the case, like. That's not me being needlessly pessimistic, either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I can see the mackems losing both but don't think they will. Wouldn't be that surprised if they got only one point, but that's still enough to have us shitting ourself in case they win at Watford. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total fucking idiot. I'll be astonished if that's the case, like. That's not me being needlessly pessimistic, either. Me too, I change by the day depending on who I talk too. I'll probably have us going down tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figures 1-0 Football Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I went from a 6 to a 9 earlier just during a poo. Back down to a 7 now. Literally no idea what's going to happen. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total f***ing idiot. I'll be astonished if that's the case, like. That's not me being needlessly pessimistic, either. Me too, I change by the day depending on who I talk too. I'll probably have us going down tomorrow. We can't go down tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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