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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
in Football

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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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Stifler

Stifler

Posted
Posted

I've just went back the last few years on Statto. Typically 36 points is enough to keep teams up, there have been one or two exceptions but on average 36 points is about right. Interestingly Sunderland's end of season form isn't all that impressive, only one occasion in the last 3-4 years have they managed to gain more than 4 points from their final 4 games. Also teams who do end in the relegation zone have rarely won one of their final 4-5 games. It seems that a little bit of momentum is enough for you to climb out and as we are so far the team showing that momentum typical of survivors it looks encouraging for us. Hopefully the trend continues and the Sunderland continue their poor end of season form along with Norwich.

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Stottie

Stottie

Posted
Posted

I've just went back the last few years on Statto. Typically 36 points is enough to keep teams up, there have been one or two exceptions but on average 36 points is about right. Interestingly Sunderland's end of season form isn't all that impressive, only one occasion in the last 3-4 years have they managed to gain more than 4 points from their final 4 games. Also teams who do end in the relegation zone have rarely won one of their final 4-5 games. It seems that a little bit of momentum is enough for you to climb out and as we are so far the team showing that momentum typical of survivors it looks encouraging for us. Hopefully the trend continues and the Sunderland continue their poor end of season form along with Norwich.

 

In terms of typical form, most teams finishing bottom six don't get that many points in their final fixtures. That's true and is reassuring.

 

If there is a difference this year, it is that us under Rafa and Sunderland under post-transfer window Fathead are very different teams to those fielded earlier in the season, resulting in a mismatch between where the teams are in the table and the present way they are playing.

 

fwiw, I think Norwich are gone because there are no goals in their team. I'd be more confident about our chances if the mackems hadn't grabbed that point at Stoke, but if we go out and beat Villa, it will pile the pressure on them. That alone could be enough.

 

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Mick

Mick

Posted
Posted

I was on 5 before today but now on a 10 as I can't see how we'll get over all of these injuries which are guaranteed to happen over the next 2 weeks. We're as good as gone.

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Stifler

Stifler

Posted
Posted

I've just went back the last few years on Statto. Typically 36 points is enough to keep teams up, there have been one or two exceptions but on average 36 points is about right. Interestingly Sunderland's end of season form isn't all that impressive, only one occasion in the last 3-4 years have they managed to gain more than 4 points from their final 4 games. Also teams who do end in the relegation zone have rarely won one of their final 4-5 games. It seems that a little bit of momentum is enough for you to climb out and as we are so far the team showing that momentum typical of survivors it looks encouraging for us. Hopefully the trend continues and the Sunderland continue their poor end of season form along with Norwich.

 

In terms of typical form, most teams finishing bottom six don't get that many points in their final fixtures. That's true and is reassuring.

 

If there is a difference this year, it is that us under Rafa and Sunderland under post-transfer window Fathead are very different teams to those fielded earlier in the season, resulting in a mismatch between where the teams are in the table and the present way they are playing.

 

fwiw, I think Norwich are gone because there are no goals in their team. I'd be more confident about our chances if the mackems hadn't grabbed that point at Stoke, but if we go out and beat Villa, it will pile the pressure on them. That alone could be enough.

The point I was referring too was that typically the team to survive is out of the relegation zone at his stage and typically not many more points are needed at this stage of the season for the other clubs. One exception where over 36 points was needed was when teams with 39 went down, however at this stage of the season those who finished on 39 or higher had more points. The only worrying stats is one season where 37 was enough to keep you safe or go down depending on GD. Also despite the feeling that Sunderland have a good end of season this is actually rare, the majority of seasons they get about 4 points from their last few games. A season when they did have a decent finish and finished with more than 4 points in the final few games was a season when they were clear of the relegation zone and finished well above it.

So in summary the team who is already out of the relegation zone (even Liecester were at this stage of the season) and the team gaining points now (us) are the team who survive.

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Anon

Anon

Posted
Posted

So in summary the team who is already out of the relegation zone (even Liecester were at this stage of the season) and the team gaining points now (us) are the team who survive.

 

So the team who aren't in the relegation zone and are in form stay up?  :smugdog:

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Stifler

Stifler

Posted
Posted

So in summary the team who is already out of the relegation zone (even Liecester were at this stage of the season) and the team gaining points now (us) are the team who survive.

 

So the team who aren't in the relegation zone and are in form stay up?  :smugdog:

Sorry typo. The team who arn't in the relegation and are in form typically stay up and typically don't usually need many more points as the teams below them typically don't gain many.
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mrmojorisin75

mrmojorisin75

Posted
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No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home.

 

same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we?  really hard to see that happening tbh

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Mole_Toonfan

Mole_Toonfan

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No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home.

 

same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we?  really hard to see that happening tbh

 

Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me.

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Elliottman

Elliottman

Posted
Posted

No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home.

 

same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we?  really hard to see that happening tbh

 

Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me.

 

Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either.

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mrmojorisin75

mrmojorisin75

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Posted

No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home.

 

same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we?  really hard to see that happening tbh

 

Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me.

 

Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either.

Can't see them losing two home games at all, would be very surprised if they did.

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Elliottman

Elliottman

Posted
Posted

No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home.

 

same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we?  really hard to see that happening tbh

 

Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me.

 

Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either.

Can't see them losing two home games at all, would be very surprised if they did.

 

Sure, but it's not inconceivable. like I say, if Chelsea can beat them that everton game brings huge pressure. fuck knows, like K.I says, we could run through every single scenario.

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mrmojorisin75

mrmojorisin75

Posted
Posted

No way can I handle the stress of having to get a result v Spurs. Desperate for the mackems to bottle it at home.

 

same, but we need to win and them have 2 home defeats on the bounce don't we?  really hard to see that happening tbh

 

Is it really that difficult to imagine? they have won once since February 13th ( against Norwich no less), ok a lot of them have been draws but seeing them lose two on the bounce would hardly surprise me.

 

Was just about to say the same, especially of they lose the first one. the pressure on the everyone games becomes huge and I'm not convinced everton will just roll over either.

Can't see them losing two home games at all, would be very surprised if they did.

 

Sure, but it's not inconceivable. like I say, if Chelsea can beat them that everton game brings huge pressure. fuck knows, like K.I says, we could run through every single scenario.

 

i didn't say it was inconceivable like, just it was hard to see it happening, which i think it is tbh

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Yorkie

Yorkie

Posted
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Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total fucking idiot.

 

I'll be astonished if that's the case, like. That's not me being needlessly pessimistic, either.

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Disco

Disco

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Posted

Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total fucking idiot.

 

I'll be astonished if that's the case, like. That's not me being needlessly pessimistic, either.

 

Me too, I change by the day depending on who I talk too. I'll probably have us going down tomorrow.

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Mick

Mick

Posted
Posted

Convinced myself earlier that it won't even go to the last day, I'm a total f***ing idiot.

 

I'll be astonished if that's the case, like. That's not me being needlessly pessimistic, either.

 

Me too, I change by the day depending on who I talk too. I'll probably have us going down tomorrow.

We can't go down tomorrow.
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