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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


midds

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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2 hours ago, 54 said:

As Man City are beating Leeds, if the result sticks any dropped points for Leeds, Everton or Burnley going forward means we'll be mathematically safe.

Pretty sure this is completely incorrect like [emoji38]

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Maximum points total Leeds and Burnley can get is 46, Everton can get 47. We're on 43.

 

Can see Everton getting 9 or 10 points tbf. Burnley can probably get 7, Leeds could get 5. Could well go to the last day but between Leeds and Everton.

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On 26/04/2022 at 01:21, ponsaelius said:

Yeah I seem to remember getting a bit of jip for even suggesting Burnley might get to 36. There is always a chance that teams down the bottom put runs together near the end of the season. There is every chance Burnley/Everton push each other and raise the threshold right up now. I am very glad we are well out of it with our last 4 games.

 

Some people on here were saying that both Burnley and Everton wouldn't even reach the 35pts mark. Glad that we're already on 40+ points or we would've got dragged in the scrap given our remaining fixtures. 

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3 hours ago, Kid Icarus said:

I have an unreasonable dislike for 538 like. 

 

It's interesting enough but it's not really any more useful or accurate a predictor than betting odds. In fact based on comparing them I've found the bookies to be a more reasonable assessment.

 

We had a 78% chance of going down according to 538 in late December. I don't think our odds ever drifted that badly because punters and bookies would have factored in elements like the spending we would do in Jan - whereas from what I can see 538 appears to be blunt statistics based on fixtures.

 

 

Edited by ponsaelius

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10 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

 

It's interesting enough but it's not really any more useful or accurate a predictor than betting odds. In fact based on comparing them I've found the bookies to be a more reasonable assessment.

 

We had a 78% chance of going down according to 538 in late December. I don't think our odds ever drifted that badly because punters and bookies would have factored in elements like the spending we would do in Jan - whereas from what I can see 538 appears to be blunt statistics based on fixtures.

 

 

 

 

GWN posted these odds on Dec 28th just before the transfer window, so yeah, nothing like 78%:

 

Norwich 1/6

Newcastle 9/11

Watford 28/29

Burnley 6/5

Leeds 3/1

Brentford 9/1

Palace 16/1

 

(No sign of Rafa's Everton at that stage...)

 

By Jan 22nd, and after Leeds it was:

 

Norwich 1/4

Watford 1/3

Burnley 8/15

Newcastle 13/8

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Come the fuck on! I know we're "safe" already but I can't bring myself to relax until it's mathematically secure.

 

Wishing this game was not against Chelsea tbh, they seem determined to lose at any cost these days.

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1 hour ago, Miercoles said:

Come the fuck on! I know we're "safe" already but I can't bring myself to relax until it's mathematically secure.

 

Wishing this game was not against Chelsea tbh, they seem determined to lose at any cost these days.

A draw would do….ends our relegation fears (I know)…..and gives Leeds chances of avoiding relegation a little boost

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Southampton may get quite concerned if Leeds pick up something from tonight. Can see them getting tanked at home to Liverpool next week and wouldn’t be confident on them getting much from Leicester either.

 

Leeds’ GD is just horrific though.

 

 

Edited by TheInfiniteOdyssey

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2 minutes ago, TheInfiniteOdyssey said:

Southampton may get quite concerned if Leeds pick up something from tonight. Can see them getting tanked at home to Liverpool next week and wouldn’t be confident on them getting much from Leicester either.

 

Leeds’s GD is just horrific though.

Don’t think Southampton or Leicester will get any points from that game….they are both utter shite atm. ?

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6 minutes ago, Scoot said:

Yeah, hopefully we never ever see this thread again. 

No doubt some witty joker will bump this thread after we inevitably lose our first game of next season :lol:

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