Jump to content

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


midds

The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



Recommended Posts

The competitive imbalances in the league these days - compared to even three or four years ago - mean that you can't use previous seasons to accurately predict what we're going to require to stay up. As @Robster says, we simply need more than whatever Burnley and Watford get. At the current rate, we wouldn't even need to get to 30 points to achieve that, let alone the magic 40.

 

These days, the worst teams in the league are absolutely honking compared to basically everyone above them, even poorer teams or teams out of form. There's so much competence across the majority of the league that the small number of truly awful teams are absolutely gasping for every morsel of oxygen available between themselves, as opposed to competitive battles where anyone from 12th down can get sucked in. 9th-16th is going to be as pointless and interchangeable as it can get. 

 

Points difference between 10th place and 18th place over the last ten years:

 

2010-11: 8 points (47 / 39)

11-12: 11 (47 / 36)

12-13: 10 (46 / 36)

13-14: 12 (49 / 37)

14-15: 13 (48 / 35)

15-16: 13 (50 / 37)

16-17: 11 (45 / 34)

17-18: 11 (44 / 33)

18-19: 18! (52 / 34)

19-20: 20!! (54 / 34)

20-21: 31!!! (59 / 28)

 

59 points to finish 10th ffs. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

It is hilarious how high you can finish with a terrible points total now. Helped Bruce out a treat. 
 

That said, still would be extremely worried if we don’t get high 30s. Whether logical or not. 

 

Yep. The difference between the top and the bottom is getting more and more stark. You don't need to win that many games to finish clear of the relegation zone, if the last couple of (and this) seasons is anything to go by. 

 

2010-11:

1st-10th: 608 points shared

11th-20th: 421 points shared

 

(187 more points shared among top half than bottom half) 

 

2020-21:

1st-10th: 668

11th-20th: 389

 

(279 more points shared among top half than bottom half)

Link to post
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, McCormick said:


My bad. PL website is useless apparently.

 

It sort of depends how you look at it. 29 points wouldn't have been enough for Fulham to get out the bottom 3, but for us and any other team outside it was enough to keep them above Fulham/the bottom 3. I guess the PL site shows the actual lowest points total of a surviving team. Last year that would be 39 points, but it doesn't really tell the story since they were 11 points above the drop.

 

 

Edited by Inferior Acuña

Link to post
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, GWN said:

Back up to a 10 unless this week brings a striker 

 

Yeah I'm up to a 9 after today. Only a glut of players bought this month saves us now. Howe has got to win next week, any thing less will be unacceptable.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Guest HTT II
6 minutes ago, GWN said:

Back up to a 10 unless this week brings a striker 

Even a star striker won’t make the difference, it’s not as if one can just win games on their own single handed, we have a shit defence, a shit midfield, zero confidence, 1 win all season and 14 years of neglect, WE ARE GOING DOWN!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, xLiaaamx said:

Too much pressure. Our lot are born losers. Next week goes one way and that's a big fat L thanks to a clanger. 

 

That's the spirit [emoji38]

 

We are relegated when mathematically it's impossible to stay up. We have a chance to reinforce and by God, do we need to do it and fairly fast.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...