Superior Acuña Posted October 26, 2025 Share Posted October 26, 2025 7 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said: Here's a chart which tracks where we should pick up points based on difficulty of opposition and whether home or away. The formula used (which ranks teams into 4 tiers based mainly upon where they finished last year) has been pretty accurate last three seasons. In short, even though we're sitting 11th we're basically not far away from being on track for 6th (2 points below). Which I think most of us would take given extra CL burden. Speaking of which, we're about three points below where we should be for a fifth place finish (not shown on chart). I wouldn’t be raging or anything with 6th but I wouldn’t take it. I’d like to see us progress, and I think the next stage is qualifying for CL while being in the CL. And I don’t think there’s anyone competing with us that I’d be particularly happy losing out too. Eg current faves (?) spurs also have CL to deal with and were way behind us last season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted October 26, 2025 Share Posted October 26, 2025 On 18/10/2025 at 21:05, The Prophet said: Not that it works like this, but I'm bored, so I thought I'd see how we did in these fixtures in our previous three seasons, plus how we started. 22/23: 4th Points from the same fixtures - 9 Points from first eight - 11 23/24: 7th Points from the same fixtures - 9 Points from the first eight - 13 24/25: 5th Points from the same fixtures - 15 Points from the first eight - 12 So we're not a mile off our usual kind of results. Running to the end of January, we have... Fulham (H), West Ham (a), Brentford (a), City (H), Everton (a), Spurs (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (a), Chelsea (H), Man United (a), Burnley (a), Palace (H), Leeds (H), Wolves (a), Villa (H). So even with European commitments, I'd expect us to be putting a run or two together over this period. Won't do this every week, but... 22/23: 4th Points from the same fixtures - 12 Points from first nine - 14 23/24: 7th Points from the same fixtures - 12 Points from the first nine - 16 24/25: 5th Points from the same fixtures - 15 Points from the first nine - 12 We're not miles off our usual pace. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 12 hours ago, Superior Acuña said: I wouldn’t be raging or anything with 6th but I wouldn’t take it. I’d like to see us progress, and I think the next stage is qualifying for CL while being in the CL. And I don’t think there’s anyone competing with us that I’d be particularly happy losing out too. Eg current faves (?) spurs also have CL to deal with and were way behind us last season. Apologies in advance for early morning number crunching. Just had a look and 16-17 points from next 10 games (until end of year/half way point) was what we’d expect from a 6th place finish. So 18-19 points (from next 30 possible points) and we’re back on track for that. Probably need 21 from 30 to be on track for fourth. Still only 2.1 points per game (ppg) which is doable, but getting into the realms of really unlikely. Last CL season (2023-24) we picked up 1.58 ppg. Last year it was 1.74. Best recent season was 1.87 (2022-23). Think it would be progress if we managed something like last year again. At present we’re on 1.33 ppg (grim given our average is 1.40 for all seasons in Prem) to turn this into 1.74 ppg by the end of the season, oddly, in the next 29 games we need to achieve what we averaged for 2022-23, that is 1.87 ppg. I reckon that is about the best we could realistically hope for: so about 31 points at end of December and about 66 points by end of season. Obvs there are equally, if not more, probable worse scenarios though I’ll be surprised if we dip much below 60 points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 FWIW, given the start to European comps this season, and the various country coefficients, I’d say it’s looking pretty likely it’ll be five CL places again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramirez Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 Villa favs for europa too so could well see 6 again, but that may have more of a bearing on finishing positions as they will no doubt have a better league season than man u and spurs and be in the shuffle near the top. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 Presumably England getting five the first time increases its chances of always getting five, because there's more opportunities to run up coefficient points across more entrants? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 5 minutes ago, Yorkie said: Presumably England getting five the first time increases its chances of always getting five, because there's more opportunities to run up coefficient points across more entrants? No slightly the opposite I think. It’s averaged out to be comparable to leagues with 4 or less. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 8 minutes ago, Yorkie said: Presumably England getting five the first time increases its chances of always getting five, because there's more opportunities to run up coefficient points across more entrants? Yeah, as TCD says, it’s average rather than cumulative, so not necessarily an advantage. However, the more teams you have, the more chance there is that some go deep in the competitions, and without wanting to start a debate about the maths involved, I think having a team do really well is more impactful than having a team do really badly. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramirez Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 im sure its already 98% likely or something like that according to the data sites on twitter. It's designed to go to one of the big leagues so will likely only ever get shared between england, spain germany and italy maybe. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 4 minutes ago, ramirez said: im sure its already 98% likely or something like that according to the data sites on twitter. It's designed to go to one of the big leagues so will likely only ever get shared between england, spain germany and italy maybe. It’s really becoming a three-way between England, Spain and Italy. Germany have got Bayern and then Dortmund, but it feels like they’re then needing 2 or 3 others to perform at a level above what you would expect. Maybe they could get a bit fortunate in that their teams in the EL and ECL, have really good seasons and being in those comps will allow them to get further (could just about make a similar argument for France), but I can’t really see them impacting the extra place race any other way. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 The first year was it not Germany and Holland they got the extra place? Us and Man U finishing bottom of the group pretty much did in England’s chances of another CL spot. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramirez Posted October 27, 2025 Share Posted October 27, 2025 Italy got the extra one the year before along with Germany. Atalanta won the Europa but came fourth anyway. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted November 1, 2025 Share Posted November 1, 2025 (edited) On 25/10/2025 at 15:33, Superior Acuña said: Us and rivals for 4/5th Uncle Jeff coefficients - After us gaining 3 v Fulham Us -3 Villa -5 (same points as us last season) Tottenham +7 (28 points behind us last season) ManU +2 (24 points behind us last season) Chelsea -4 (3 points ahead of us last season) edit: updated after Sunday games Probs only one interested in this but updated after Sunday games Us -6 Villa -5 (same points as us last season) Tottenham +7 (28 points behind us last season) ManU +3 (24 points behind us last season) Chelsea -4 (3 points ahead of us last season) Changes are ManU +1 with their draw after losing last season (no Elanga to destroy them) and us -3. Edited November 2, 2025 by Superior Acuña Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixelphish Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 Think I might go with, nee chance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 (edited) Could do with one of those mega run, like the winter one last season. Last season we got 2 points from the next three games… Edited November 2, 2025 by Superior Acuña Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
toontownman Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 Its cool. We are just going to win the CL. Screw the league qualifications. Win all the cups and finish 17th. Thats the goal, if we can find it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 Far too early to rule us out, but we need to sort our away form out to sustain any kind of run. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggies Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 We’re 13th after a quarter of the season and I think that’s a fair position for us. Big improvements needed. But today felt like Brentford or Fulham away last season. We had Bournemouth and Luton the season before. There’s still time to turn this around… Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarie4 Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 4 minutes ago, Maggies said: We’re 13th after a quarter of the season and I think that’s a fair position for us. Big improvements needed. But today felt like Brentford or Fulham away last season. We had Bournemouth and Luton the season before. There’s still time to turn this around… We need a wining run soon. 5/6 games.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingArthur Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 3 minutes ago, tarie4 said: We need a wining run soon. 5/6 games.. Sadly dont see that coming. We are too passive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lush Vlad Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 We’re a streaky team, so we’ll go on a good run at some point. But it’s hard to be confident. Doesn’t feel like there are goals in the team ATM and we don’t create much. Need more FRET™️ As for the away form and performances. We are back to looking like the NUFC I’ve watched most of my life. Dire on the road and never look like getting a result. Got more chance of qualifying via a cup I reckon. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnNUFC Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 Our best chance of getting Champions League football this season is if we win the thing this year. Which isn’t happening either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 We were 12th after matchweek 15 last season. People would’ve said it was gone then too. There’s clearly time to turn it around and we look no less likely to than last season. But we need to see a change soon and a similarly great run as last season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 I'm absolutely certain we won't qualify for the CL but I did say that last season around this time too. I think we'll be among the teams competing for the Europa spots but we don't have the goals in the side for a CL push, assuming Wissa isn't the second coming of Isak. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramirez Posted November 2, 2025 Share Posted November 2, 2025 Not convinced by spurs, Chelsea or man united, or villa either, but crucially not convinced by us. So I’m sure one or two of them at least will get ahead of us. That was a must win game to turn around away form really. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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