stozo Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 You look at our last eight fixtures and think there are seven winnable games in there. But we haven't managed to string a consistent run of wins together this season. I think in truth it probably hinges on Wednesday. You obviously want us to win, but if we get knocked out I think there is probably a much higher chance of us taking the 14 points or so we'll probably need to snag Europe than if we end up needing to focus on a two-legged tie against Atletico Madrid. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alreetworked Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 We've been inconsistent because we've played the most games of almost any team in Europe (Semi final LC, R16 FA & R16 CL while managing stay within reach of Europe you Howe out ratboys). If we do go out on Wednesday i'm faithful we have a good chance of getting enough results to get at least a Conference League spot. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stozo Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, Alreetworked said: We've been inconsistent because we've played the most games of almost any team in Europe (Semi final LC, R16 FA & R16 CL while managing stay within reach of Europe you Howe out ratboys). If we do go out on Wednesday i'm faithful we have a good chance of getting enough results to get at least a Conference League spot. I'd be a bit more cautious about this. Workload has definitely played a part, but the bigger issue this season is the attack is functioning at a mid table team level. I would love if a reduced workload leads to us suddenly finding the rhythm in attack but I think that's probably not going to be the case. Gordon seems to work against teams where we play transition & high press, but unfortunately there are not a lot of those teams left in the fixture lists - it's going to be low block central between now and end of season. When I say chances are higher of us getting 14 points or so from the final 8 if we get knocked out on Weds - I'm talking about going from probably 10% likely to maybe 30% likely? If I was a betting man I wouldn't be putting money on us. Nothing on Howe, I just think fixing the attack is probably realistically a job where we might see a bit of progress in the next few months but probably won't see real change until next season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfcastle Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 We'd need the current top 6 to lose more than they win which isn't going to happen. So its on 7th which with only a slight improvement in the win-one lose-one ratio of the season should be on until near the end. Still cant get carried away and as much as most of the games are winnable just as easy a case can be made for not winning any of them. West Ham being the only one I'd be surprised if we didn't win - whether they're still fighting to stay up or already down. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 5 hours ago, The Fountain said: Conference is League Cup winners, only goes on league position if the winners qualify for the champions or Europa That's a given though, isn't it. Its Arsenal vs. City. Gemini AI was surprisingly informative, but Villa winning the Europa and finishing sixth creates the potential for a Europa place being pushed down the league, on top of the one that will be pushed down from a big team FA Cup win. Gemini seems to think though that there is a hard to explain UEFA rule saying only teams in the top 7 can qualify for CL and Europa through league position. The best reward an eighth place finish can get is Conference League. In the situation I've described, the FA Cup Europa place (or Villa's for sixth) would simply vanish. I would imagine the league fighting UEFA to keep this place if it were to go to Man U or Liverpool, but they won't give a monkeys if it is Brentford or Everton or NUFC losing out. Another scenario where the above might happen is Liverpool finish sixth but fluke a CL win. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
black_n_white Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 I’d imagine Eddies goal this season was to finish top 8 minimum. I’d be chuffed with any form of European football next season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 This is from Football Rankings, and is obviously completely spurious at the minute because a) no qualifications have been decided and b) this seasons European comps haven’t ended, so some clubs could still add to their coefficient total. But regardless, it gives an indication of what our standing would be, and the kind of opponents we would face, if we made ECL. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Is it not lik the CL where seeeding doesn’t matter m? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Just now, The College Dropout said: Is it not lik the CL where seeeding doesn’t matter m? Yes, it matters far, far less than it used to. Although you get a bigger share of the pot the better your coefficient is (granted, in terms of ECL, that’s probably a bigger share of next to fuck all). I guess I’d just use that graphic mainly as a (very) rough guide to the kind of opposition we would face. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infinitely Content Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 I was of the opinion that I'd rather a season with just the 3 domestic competitions unless we could make the europa league. However after seeing FC Iberia in those projected tables, I'm all for it. Their ground is 5 minutes walk from my apartment and they're absolutely shite. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 52 minutes ago, SteV said: Yes, it matters far, far less than it used to. Although you get a bigger share of the pot the better your coefficient is (granted, in terms of ECL, that’s probably a bigger share of next to fuck all). I guess I’d just use that graphic mainly as a (very) rough guide to the kind of opposition we would face. Aye co-efficient is now about money only. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fountain Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, The College Dropout said: Aye co-efficient is now about money only. Shite isn't it. The more prize money you've had in the past the more you'll get in the future. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lush Vlad Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Great result for us that. We still need to put a run together. Which we’ve been incapable of all season. But considering our last two league games were wins. One against Man U, where we had 10 men for a half. Then away at Chelsea, where we never win We suddenly look in an ok position. I thought 8th at best only a couple of weeks ago. But it is looking wide open for that 7th spot again. Maybe even 6th of Rosenior carries on with tactics like we saw on Saturday Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 The PL is in an era of extreme parity and even the shit teams are pretty good. Makes sense that most of the top teams can't get a consistent run of results and the middle of the table is wide open. If everyone is underperforming maybe nobody is. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bonk Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 13 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said: Great result for us that. We still need to put a run together. Which we’ve been incapable of all season. But considering our last two league games were wins. One against Man U, where we had 10 men for a half. Then away at Chelsea, where we never win We suddenly look in an ok position. I thought 8th at best only a couple of weeks ago. But it is looking wide open for that 7th spot again. Maybe even 6th of Rosenior carries on with tactics like we saw on Saturday Think we'll get 7th personally. Brentford have a trickier remaining fixture list than us. Everton are playing a few games against the cartel too. Anything above that is more than I'm expecting. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWMag Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 If we go out of Europe on Wednesday and are back to 1 game a week with plenty of time on the training pitch, I’d be confident of a good run to end the season. it’s unlikely we overtake 2 of villa, Liverpool, Chelsea for 5th, but I wouldn’t rule it out (if we lose on Wednesday). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deuce Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 12 hours ago, Infinitely Content said: I was of the opinion that I'd rather a season with just the 3 domestic competitions unless we could make the europa league. However after seeing FC Iberia in those projected tables, I'm all for it. Their ground is 5 minutes walk from my apartment and they're absolutely shite. It would be an honor to watch us get dicked at home by FC Iberia 1999 on a cold Thursday evening Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Let’s fuckin do this Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, NWMag said: If we go out of Europe on Wednesday and are back to 1 game a week with plenty of time on the training pitch, I’d be confident of a good run to end the season. it’s unlikely we overtake 2 of villa, Liverpool, Chelsea for 5th, but I wouldn’t rule it out (if we lose on Wednesday). Villa have been the luckiest team by xG by a wide margin all season and have hit a horrible run of form. Liverpool and Chelsea also looking extremely spotty. We've gotten through the toughest part of our season and our remaining fixtures are pretty easy with the exception of Arsenal (a). They could basically have the title in the bag by the time we go there. We've screwed things up enough already so it's not going to be easy, but you can just barely see the outline of a world where we go on a run and squeak into 5th. Would be an insane result after the season we've had. Edited March 17 by oldtype Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 7 hours ago, oldtype said: Villa have been the luckiest team by xG by a wide margin all season and have hit a horrible run of form. Liverpool and Chelsea also looking extremely spotty. We've gotten through the toughest part of our season and our remaining fixtures are pretty easy with the exception of Arsenal (a). They could basically have the title in the bag by the time we go there. We've screwed things up enough already so it's not going to be easy, but you can just barely see the outline of a world where we go on a run and squeak into 5th. Would be an insane result after the season we've had. Villa have an expected points of 36 and are sitting on 51. It's quite remarkable really and they're a poor side in reality. Don't hate seeing them get knocked down a peg or two. I do think Newcastle are in with a shout. Liverpool still have to play us at Old Trafford and then have Chelsea and Villa. There'll be a lot of dropped points from the teams in front of you. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just realised Sunderland are bottom three in expected points too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexf Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 7th is likely best we can achieve if we get some good league form once the 2 games a week thing eases off. Realistically I'd say more like 8th if Brentford don't slip up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Brentford don't really need to "slip up". We're only three points behind them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
54 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Other than Arsenal, all of our remaining games are against teams that are below us in the league currently. Given our form this season, i'm not sure if this is good news or bad Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zero Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 52 minutes ago, Froggy said: Just realised Sunderland are bottom three in expected points too. this season is genuinely insane. For your club, for Villa, for West Ham or Spurs if they relegate, etc. not bad for a football fans. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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