Positive Optimism - Saudi Takeover Edition

[Whitley mag]

36 minutes ago, gdm said:

Just like players value is factored in i assume the managers contract and wages are also factored in. As I said this is a case of a paying up a contract not giving him a nice £4m fuck off bonus.

the new managers contract however.

also my initial post was in reply to WM’s ludicrous suggestion that Ashley would lose nothing if we got relegated but £4m if we sack Bruce that’s mental 

Alas it’s not just 4 million is it though, it would potentially mean employing a whole new coaching set up. Jones was a cheap sticking plaster no more, no less. 
 

All indications are that the club is skint hence not even being able to make significant loan signings. If the coffers are empty then yes paying off Bruce would impact on agreed price and potentially have to be another loan from Ashley. The club have just lost a leading figure from behind the scenes who will not be replaced, due to a) the fact we are sold and b)the current state of clubs finances. 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Whitley mag

[Whitley mag]

1 hour ago, et tu brute said:

I get that (no guarantee they hold value though) was just making the point that there have been many outgoings in the club’s account since the deal was agreed, so when did Ashley draw the line. I agree he’s going to lose millions, and the fact that it’s now being portrayed that relegation is being allowed to allow a takeover is just lala land stuff.

 

I believe these deals would have been covered by tv payments in summer and agreed with buyers.

[Shearergol]

I don't think the club are "skint" as such. I just think Ashley's lost interest completely. I don't even think he'll be that bothered if he has to lower his asking price, and I think he'll sell to the first person who walks through the door with a cheque.

I don't however, believe that a deal has been agreed already regardless of what league we're in. 

We'll be sold when we're relegated, I'm now pretty certain of it. I fear we're going to get some owners we don't really want though, aka Sunderland style.

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Shearergol

[gdm]

14 minutes ago, Whitley mag said:

Alas it’s not just 4 million is it though, it would potentially mean employing a whole new coaching set up. Jones was a cheap sticking plaster no more, no less. 
 

All indications are that the club is skint hence not even being able to make significant loan signings. If the coffers are empty then yes paying off Bruce would impact on agreed price and potentially have to be another loan from Ashley. The club have just lost a leading figure from behind the scenes who will not be replaced, due to a) the fact we are sold and b)the current state of clubs finances. 

We all agree that PIF won’t stick with Bruce yes? So we all just ignoring that PIF would have to pay up his contract anyway? Considering they had no problems paying an extra £50m when Ashley asked for it I doubt they’d quibble over £4m if we stayed up ffs.

also there is no way Ashley would employ a whole new coaching staff for 8 games. If Bruce is sacked it’ll be the cheap option in an interim basis which would be nowhere near £4m Likely Jones till end of season.

ashley brought Shearer & Dowie in a short term deal for 8 games and Shearer wasn’t offered a new deal and Rafa I think was brought in on a short term deal and agreed to stay on after relegation. So you think Ashley is now gonna offer out long term deals with 8 games left?

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by gdm

[gdm]

To be slightly positive as it’s the thread for it. I do believe we are in the end game for Ashley. He will sell the club but not sure it will be to PIF

[jackyboy]

I wonder how much Ashley would lose if he put the club into administration

[Whitley mag]

1 hour ago, gdm said:

We all agree that PIF won’t stick with Bruce yes? So we all just ignoring that PIF would have to pay up his contract anyway? Considering they had no problems paying an extra £50m when Ashley asked for it I doubt they’d quibble over £4m if we stayed up ffs.

also there is no way Ashley would employ a whole new coaching staff for 8 games. If Bruce is sacked it’ll be the cheap option in an interim basis which would be nowhere near £4m Likely Jones till end of season.

ashley brought Shearer & Dowie in a short term deal for 8 games and Shearer wasn’t offered a new deal and Rafa I think was brought in on a short term deal and agreed to stay on after relegation. So you think Ashley is now gonna offer out long term deals with 8 games left?

 

I don’t think he’s going to offer a long term contract to anyone, because as I stated I believe it would involve him having to loan the club further money, therefore affecting purchase price.

Why would PIF agree to pay Bruce off at this point when arbitration is 50/50 and could go either way ? 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Whitley mag

[gdm]

10 minutes ago, Whitley mag said:

I don’t think he’s going to offer a long term contract to anyone, because as I stated I believe it would involve him having to loan the club further money, therefore affecting purchase price.

Why would PIF agree to pay Bruce off at this point when arbitration is 50/50 and could go either way ? 

I didn’t say at this point. I’m talking about when they buy the club which you assure us is a certainty. 

I’m saying the £4m that Ashley ‘loses’ is already accounted for because they are Bruce’s wages they’d just be paid up. If Bruce is still here in summer & PIF buy us they would have to pay up the remainder of his contract.

I maintain you are talking absolute bollocks that Ashley would lose nothing after relegation but would lose £4m for sacking Bruce. Neither is the case 

we are going round in circles. 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by gdm

[Whitley mag]

3 minutes ago, gdm said:

I didn’t say at this point. I’m talking about when they buy the club which you assure us is a certainty. 

I’m saying the £4m that Ashley ‘loses’ is already accounted for because they are Bruce’s wages they’d just be paid up. If Bruce is still here in summer & PIF buy us they would have to pay up the remainder of his contract.

I maintain you are talking absolute bollocks that Ashley would lose nothing after relegation but would lose £4m for sacking Bruce. Neither is the case 

we are going round in circles. 

Yes but the point of you’re argument is why would Ashley not just pay Bruce off now, given PIF will have to pick this up anyway. However, you’re assuming Ashley is happy to take this hit on a promise it goes through, PIF could well be happy at this point to say get rid of him now and should it go through we’ll add 4 million on to purchase price to cover the loan. I just don’t think Ashley at this point is prepared to do this, he’s financially astute and will also be planning on deal not going through, relegation and how much it could potentially cost him.

I believe it will go through yes, based on our legal team and the arguments they will present.

[Happinesstan]

Is there not some legality that prevents potential buyers from dictating employment decisions at a company that they have no authority over?

[gdm]

No I’m saying sacking Bruce essentially wipes £4m off the clubs wage bill wether it’s Ashley that does it or PIF the issue then because the replacement and the deal/wages that person is on. Ashley likely to be short term

but just to clarify your original point that I disagreed with that manor park called ‘an excellent summary’

Ashley sacks Bruce wiping the wage bill of £4m = disaster for Ashley strike £4 off the asking price

relegation from the Premier League, leading to no tv money (except parachute payments) squad of players with no relegation clauses playing in the championship on premier league wages and probable reduction in gate receipts = not a problem “Ashley will be no worse off” with some sort of ‘add on’

its fantasy land stuff passed off as facts 

But I’ll leave the arguments to others now 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by gdm

[Whitley mag]

11 minutes ago, gdm said:

No I’m saying sacking Bruce essentially wipes £4m off the clubs wage bill wether it’s Ashley that does it or PIF the issue then because the replacement and the deal/wages that person is on. Ashley likely to be short term

That’s a fair point but assumes Ashley would then be happy with Jones and maybe Dawson in charge for rest of the season. That ultimately is why I believe he’s sticking with Bruce, I don’t think he wants to pay for a replacement team to come in, and thinks Bruce is better option than the previous 2 mentioned.

I must add I would be happy with Jones and Dawson at this point.

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Whitley mag

[Whitley mag]

13 minutes ago, gdm said:

No I’m saying sacking Bruce essentially wipes £4m off the clubs wage bill wether it’s Ashley that does it or PIF the issue then because the replacement and the deal/wages that person is on. Ashley likely to be short term

but just to clarify your original point that I disagreed with that manor park called ‘an excellent summary’

Ashley sacks Bruce wiping the wage bill of £4m = disaster for Ashley strike £4 off the asking price

relegation from the Premier League, leading to no tv money (except parachute payments) squad of players with no relegation clauses playing in the championship on premier league wages and probable reduction in gate receipts = not a problem “Ashley will be no worse off” with some sort of ‘add on’

its fantasy land stuff passed off as facts 

But I’ll leave the arguments to others now 

What I’m saying is I believe Ashley will be prepared to accept a structured deal, which will certainly not be far off the agreed price now, after payments on promotion etc are factored in.

 

[Stifler]

The £4m it will take to pay off Bruce will come out of the clubs pocket, not Ashley’s. I don’t think he wants to pay it because if the arbitration doesn’t go in our favour and we have to go down the appeals process, then that will take another year or so. Even assuming PIF are still waiting to buy us at that point, it would still mean that Ashley would have to bring in someone else, possibly paying compensation, and possibly mean that it’s £4m or so that he can’t take out of the club assuming the sale collapses.

I also partly think he’s lost interest. To him he thinks if we go down it’s either going to be PIF’s problem in getting us back up, or that we will do it somehow as we have in the past. To him the club is ran on autopilot. I actually think at this point Charnley has more freedom than he ever has. He can sign who he wants so long as it’s in budget, he can possibly hire or fire the managers, again assuming it’s on budget. The thing is though Charnley has never had a job to do at the club. Charnley has done as little as possible for as long as possible when he’s been in charge of the club. Partly because he doesn’t know what to do, partly because a lot of the deals and running of the club was done by someone at SD HQ. Right now Charnley will be at home shielding himself from having to go out, partly because he’s a lazy bastard who’s never had to do anything demanding in his work life, partly because of the pandemic and the complications it provides when you are a fat cunt.

There is no chance on earth Charnley is going to turn around and sack Steve and then be left with having to find new manager or to bring the attention back on to himself. It’s far too easy for him to sit at home watching day time TV.

 

As for the takeover itself. If we go down we become a Championship club, regardless of arguments about how we should never have got there and it’s down to being mismanaged, we will become one. The price of our club will change. That may mean an overall reduction in the price of the club, it may mean a structured deal with conditions that we come back within a certain time frame and our future success. We also can’t forget that Rick Parry is in the back pockets of the top 6, so any problems we face with the EPL we may face with the EFL, however with the EFL we may be better placed to navigate it if the EPL’s ‘official’ problem does relate to piracy.

Nothing is a given in this takeover. I don’t believe relegation would mean that the takeover is off, but I do think it would mean something has to change somewhere along the lines. It may come down to Ashley even having his eyes on something else like John Lewis shares or something.

As for Bruce not being sacked, it’s nothing more than Ashley being a negligent owner and Charnley being a lazy bastard who wants to get out of doing some work, combined with Ashley not wanting to pay a penny even if the penny he is spending may soon not be his to spend.

[Candi_Hills]

Regarding the "what is a championship club?" question, in my opinion buying Newcastle or Leeds for 300m in the 2nd div would be better than buying Fulham or Bournemouth for 100m in the 1st div.

Even in years gone by, when Leeds were shite, everybody on this board recognised them as one of our biggest rivals for attracting new buyers because they always represented something a bit more than just championship club. Same for Newcastle. The potential is obvious.

 

[Bimpy474]

2 hours ago, gdm said:

To be slightly positive as it’s the thread for it. I do believe we are in the end game for Ashley. He will sell the club but not sure it will be to PIF

I keep thinking it's the end game with the parasite, and yet we're still not free of his purgatory.

 

Still clinging to the faint hope by my fingertips it'll be over soon.

[midds]

7 hours ago, Alberto2005 said:

I think the cost of relegation is slightly more than paying off Steve Bruce.

Totally know what you're getting at but let's not forget that at the end of THIS season Fat Mike gets the nice big bumper PL cash whether we go down or not. That's guaranteed. The huge drop in revenue won't be apparent for quite a while yet. Not beyond the realms of possibility that Ashley takes as much as me can of the PL cash from his loan, sells off Wilson, ASM, Almiron, doesn't spend a fucking penny and accepts £100m less when he shifts us on in (to whoever) the next 9 months. 

[Yorkie]

Good point that, Midds. So mebs he doesn't give a fuck about relegation cos he knows, beyond all doubt, he's gonna get what he wants regardless of whether we're in the PL or Championship, and a hundred mill for just competing this season is in the bank regardless? Apologies if this epiphany of old news.   

 

[Candi_Hills]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't been bumped. New contract deals for Gayle and Murphy strongly suggest the club are already preparing for a season in the 2nd division. This, in my opinion, does not bode well for the takeover and I wouldn't be surprised if the crushing news comes soon.

It's still on until it's off I suppose but this one has shifted the dial on my meltdown meter.

 

[Jinky Jim]

29 minutes ago, Candi_Hills said:

I'm surprised this thread hasn't been bumped. New contract deals for Gayle and Murphy strongly suggest the club are already preparing for a season in the 2nd division. This, in my opinion, does not bode well for the takeover and I wouldn't be surprised if the crushing news comes soon.

It's still on until it's off I suppose but this one has shifted the dial on my meltdown meter.

 

Thought there was some interesting optimism Candi......I shouldn’t have been drawn in😀

[RS]

It’s off until it’s back on. And tying up championship players says a lot. 

[Menace]

Dwight Gayle was on Staveley's shortlist pal.

[Scotty66]

Today's contract news is just the club continuing on as normal, has no relevance to the takeover imo. It would be ridiculous to let players leave for free given our current situation. 

 

[Whitley mag]

24 minutes ago, Scotty66 said:

Today's contract news is just the club continuing on as normal, has no relevance to the takeover imo. It would be ridiculous to let players leave for free given our current situation. 

 

Simple as this really.

[Ashley17]

Players under contract have more value.

Players with value means the club is worth more, almost as if Ashley is preparing for a potential renegotiation of price.

All businesses do this, usually it would be customers signing new contracts to secure the value. Not everything is a massive disaster