Dan Gleebals Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think West Brom are absolutely in this and if we beat Watford this week they will be looking down instead of up. I'm pretty confident at the moment, but a couple signings and three points will do that. Lose to Watford and it's back to panic stations. To be fair we did not really have to many options to rotate (quality ones anyway) but that's an entirely bigger issue. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Win on Saturday and we drag everyone from Watford down into it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Since the mauling at Palace, we've played 8 league games (W3, L3, D2). That's 11 points from 8 games, which included Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, and Man Utd. That's more like mid-table form. Obviously our horrific start puts us in a bad place, but if we play that out over the remaining 16 games we'd have 43 points and should be safe. Factor in the improvement in our midfield and possibly other reinforcements and I'm pretty confident we'll be ok barring some major injuries. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Howaythetoon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I still think we are going down! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
afar Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Been a strange season for us, some games like Palace away and Leicester at home, we've looked every inch the relegation fooder, the league table tells us we are but other games like Liverpool, Spuds, the last two and even in defeats at Arsenal, we've looked in a false position. I am convinced there are far worse teams than us in the division, with much weaker "on paper" squads, so surely we have enough to not drop, if we sign Townsend and Berahino, I am convinced we won't. I was playing Fifa 16 last night against Stoke and that got me thinking, look at their team, look at some of the players that play regularly for them, Bardsley, Whelan, Walters, Ireland and Wilson, players we wouldn't want near our first team, and they are managed by a manager this forum has concluded to be craptastic on many occasions, as was their previous manager, yet year on year, they are comfortable, never have relegation worries and even have some moderate success, semi final of the league cup this year, not long ago were in an FA cup final. How can they do this while we have been caught in relegation battles 3 of the last 4 years !! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bardsley: 1 start Walters: 11 starts Ireland: 0 starts Wilson: 1 start Probably why they're not as shit any more. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilko Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Since the mauling at Palace, we've played 8 league games (W3, L3, D2). That's 11 points from 8 games, which included Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, and Man Utd. That's more like mid-table form. we're on the up. Also encouraging was the West Ham performance being like night and day compared to the reverse fixture in September. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There's a buzz, there's a confidence and hopefully more new talent to come in. I feel like a penny has dropped, to the point where I'm confident of getting points at Watford. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We've had so many of these "phew, turned a corner" moments this season that I'm pretty sure they're going to get destroyed at Watford just to put everyone on suicide watch again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Crooks Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm waiting to get out before I say 'we'll be alright at all' Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Some stats to ridicule/ignore... We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks. We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most). We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league. Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players). We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134. 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham. We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35). And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league. * xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 10. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sempuki Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 10. Given up? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. It's going to be hilarious when this board is arguing about Colo's WAR and Colback's VORP. That day is coming. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. http://i.imgur.com/vUz30nl.jpg Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
afar Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I still think our fate lies in what we do business wise before the window "slams shut". Get that striker (that puts the in the back of the net) and a winger (you are actually going to give a chance to and play) them we'll be alright, we still have enough quality to get out of this mess without those new recruits but in order to do that the form and attitude shown in the last couple of games needs to carry on for a sustained period, that's been our problem a lot this season, in patches we've looked good but not been consistent enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some stats to ridicule/ignore... We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks. We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most). We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league. Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players). We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134. 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham. We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35). And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league. * xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals Hold on, Villa have a current goal difference of -20, Sunderland -18 while our current goal difference is -15. Yet they reckon our goal difference will improve to -13 but still be the worst in the league? Great example of why you shouldn't extrapolate from stats like these Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole_Toonfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. It's going to be hilarious when this board is arguing about Colo's WAR and Colback's VORP. That day is coming. I wanna know Sissoko's PER tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some stats to ridicule/ignore... We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks. We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most). We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league. Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players). We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134. 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham. We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35). And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league. * xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals Hold on, Villa have a current goal difference of -20, Sunderland -18 while our current goal difference is -15. Yet they reckon our goal difference will improve to 13 but still be the worst in the league? Great example of why you shouldn't extrapolate from stats like these They aren't expecting it to improve. It could be more indicative of future performance, however, it doesn't weight recent performance more heavily. This is a projection of where it should be based on the data. Obviously things happen in football matches and all sports that are unexpected and one or two games in a sample size of 20 can skew the data pretty badly. Also, this is a pretty new stat that is still being worked on year by year so it's by no means perfect. That said, it has us with the worst expected goal difference when in reality we are 3rd worst. Sunderland and Villa are in 19th and 18 and this metric has Arsenal, City, and Spurs as the top 3. Where it differs greatly is having Chelsea 4th with a +7.6 and Leicester 7th at +3.4. Also, Palace 17th with -10.1. None of these are that surprising though - Chelsea have underachieved, Leicester are a counter attacking side that have overachieved, and Pardew's teams routinely have a GD difference that's not indicative of their place in the table. Anyway, I hesitated to even post that stat as I knew everyone would ignore the others some of which are pretty interesting but as more and more work is done to improve football statistics metrics like this will become commonplace and fairly reliable indicators of future performance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varadi Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Watford game is huge, another good performance with 3 points and we can actually start looking upwards, another dire defeat and we'll be right in it until the end imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Nowt to worry about, eh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robster Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think a few people maybe jumped the gun last week Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Like I said, I'm still at a 7. A half decent win at home, couple of signings and everyone's thinks its job done. We can't string a couple of wins together. It's one step forward and a step backwards. Dropping points to other relegation candidates is not a good sign. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varadi Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Rest of the transfer window dictates our fate I reckon, if we don't get a goalscorer in we're probably going down. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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