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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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7 hours ago, Paullow said:

I was 'gubbed', so could only put on like 74p if I wanted to [emoji38], but Betway's current odds are pretty reassuring.

 

Norwich 2/9

Watford 1/4

Burnley 2/5

Newcastle 11/4

Everton 4/1

Brentford 11/2

Leeds 6/1

Crystal Palace 25/1

 

https://betway.com/en/sports/evt/7596742

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

 

So despite Palace being 2 points clear of Leeds, and the latter having a game in hand, the bookies generally think they are kind of out of it and more like 7 involved.

 

Teams at the bottom don't get a lot of points so games in hand in less important. Points on the board is important. Any team with more points than games after 23 games is highly unlikely to go down unless their form becomes terminal.

 

Palace realistically need to win 3 games and get 3 draws from their next 15 to stay up. That allows them to lose 9 games (when they've only lost 8 all season).

 

Palace vs Brentford on the weekend is huge. Brentford are in free fall losing 5 in a row and losing 8 of the last 10. But the other 2 are wins. Lose here and they are right in it.

 

Norwich - don't score goals. They can nick a few wins but don't score enough goals to stay up imo. They need a lot of their goals to be decisive which won't happen.

Burnley - they really need to start winning. 1 in 20 is horrendous. ARe they good enough to do that consistently?

Watford - Can Roy get the attack/defence balance right? They couldn't defend for toffee under Claudio, yet to score a goal with Roy.

 

I think it's these 3 plus us and Brentford (if they lose to Palace).

 

 

Everton could still go full Kinnear era Newcastle but I don't see it. They're in the less points than games played boat as the rest of the relegation battlers tbh.

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57 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Still think we need the points on the board. We need 7-8 from these, otherwise we’re needing 7-8 from the next run of 4 which involves Chelsea & Spurs. Before you know it there’s 4 games left and we need 7 points from Liverpool, City, Arsenal & Burnley.

 

I dont think if we dont get 7 points from the next 4 then we're down, I think we should still have enough. But the next 4 is a great opportunity to get a decent haul so we should absolutely aim for it. We could pretty much stop looking down if we do that imo. 

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1 minute ago, Super Duper Branko Strupar said:

 

I dont think if we dont get 7 points from the next 4 then we're down, I think we should still have enough. But the next 4 is a great opportunity to get a decent haul so we should absolutely aim for it. We could pretty much stop looking down if we do that imo. 

Agree, these next 4 are about us putting some space between us and the rest of the dross clogging the drain. 

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3 hours ago, r0cafella said:

Agree, these next 4 are about us putting some space between us and the rest of the dross clogging the drain. 


We need that space though because if the gap is only around 3-4 points with 4 games left, it’s going to be scary. We’ve got 12 games to get to around 7 clear for me. We don’t want to be heading into 3 games against top 6 opposition followed by a potential relegation decider on the last day only a few points clear.

 

Quite a bit of deja vu with this time last season actually. 

 

 

Edited by Optimistic Nut

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1 hour ago, Optimistic Nut said:


We need that space though because if the gap is only around 3-4 points with 4 games left, it’s going to be scary. We’ve got 12 games to get to around 7 clear for me. We don’t want to be heading into 3 games against top 6 opposition followed by a potential relegation decider on the last day only a few points clear.

 

Quite a bit of deja vu with this time last season actually. 

 

 

 

 

Plus games at the end of the season are a lottery. Many sides with nothing to play for will rest players, or if they are one of the big six, it's not conceivable they could chuck games if they think it might get Newcastle relegated. You always get some strange results at the end of the season, so we need to make sure our fate isn't in anyone else's hands.

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1 hour ago, Optimistic Nut said:


We need that space though because if the gap is only around 3-4 points with 4 games left, it’s going to be scary. We’ve got 12 games to get to around 7 clear for me. We don’t want to be heading into 3 games against top 6 opposition followed by a potential relegation decider on the last day only a few points clear.

 

Quite a bit of deja vu with this time last season actually. 

 

 

 


Yup. Need to be at least 4 points ahead of 18th before the Burnley match, or it’ll be an excruciating watch. 

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We've got 3 wins on the board and you more often than not need 9 or 10 for safety. Never this simple like but from our remaining games we should be looking to win;

 

Villa (h)

Brentford (a)

Brighton (h)

Palace (h)

Leicester (h)

Norwich (a)

Burnley (a)

 

I'd fancy us at home against most sides tbh, such as the games I've excluded against Wolves and Arsenal. West Ham we have a decent record away at and we played well against them on the opening day for ≥45 minutes but fell away after an hour due to a bollocks pen they got and the Bruce inspired lack of fitness. 

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12 hours ago, HaydnNUFC said:

We've got 3 wins on the board and you more often than not need 9 or 10 for safety. Never this simple like but from our remaining games we should be looking to win;

 

Villa (h)

Brentford (a)

Brighton (h)

Palace (h)

Leicester (h)

Norwich (a)

Burnley (a)

 

I'd fancy us at home against most sides tbh, such as the games I've excluded against Wolves and Arsenal. West Ham we have a decent record away at and we played well against them on the opening day for ≥45 minutes but fell away after an hour due to a bollocks pen they got and the Bruce inspired lack of fitness. 

 

I think the amount of draws we have skews this slightly, typically teams at the bottom lose a lot but pick up 9 or so wins from somewhere (last year was a complete anomaly). Typically you'd expect that form the 9 games we have drawn so far that 2 would be losses and 1 or 2 would be wins. 6 wins with no draws is likely to be enough, or depending on the who they fall against 4 wins and 4 draws

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23 hours ago, Anderson said:

11/2 for Brentford?! All over that. Increasingly confident it'll be them, Watford, Burnley.

 

Same. On Oct. 3 they beat West Ham and had 12 points. They picked up another 8 between then and Dec. 10. Since then they have 1 win in 8 (no draws). 

 

In the next month they play Palace, Newcastle, Norwich, and Burnley (+Arsenal) with three of those at home. They will be right in it if they don't pick up 4-5 points from those.

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Morning all.

3 big games for us to look at today 

 

Everton v Leeds , from what I saw the other night I want Leeds to win 

 

Norwich v Man C.    , easy one to want 

 

Watford v Brighton , this is the big one , Howay Brighton 

 

we have had such a run of games go for us we need it to continue , can’t see Watford troubling Brighton , maybe scrape a draw at best , they are just shit .

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5 hours ago, GWN said:

Morning all.

3 big games for us to look at today 

 

Everton v Leeds , from what I saw the other night I want Leeds to win 

 

Norwich v Man C.    , easy one to want 

 

Watford v Brighton , this is the big one , Howay Brighton 

 

we have had such a run of games go for us we need it to continue , can’t see Watford troubling Brighton , maybe scrape a draw at best , they are just shit .

 

Brentford v Palace as well. Brentford are only five points above us and we have two games in hand.

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I think the relegation fear has been a big catalyst alongside the takeover in reenergising my love for the club. The fact that there’s so much riding on every result for us and for a few other teams means that NUFC has gone from something I engaged with at the most basic level (checking results, reading on here) post-Rafa to refreshing this website and following almost everything that’s coming out of the club + watching and listening to other games again. Didn’t think I’d get reeled in again like when I was younger but the relegation fever is definitely helping 

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