The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[samptime29]

Could really do with a snide Watford red within first 20 mins.

[Ketsbaia]

Today changes nothing for me.

 

Seen us suffer enough embarrassments (Stevenage, Oxford) and enough crisis weeks that somehow lead to a big win to think it'll happen again here.

[AJ9]

Maybe this isn’t the right place to post this but feels about the best place. It’s fairly clear to see that what we are seeing is the results of years of managed decline. 
 

Past it playing squad

Lack of scouting network

No footballing blueprint / framework

No youth players ready to make the step up

Little regard to science/recovery leading to tonnes of injuries

Mental fragility

Totally inadequate facilities/infrastructure 

Stressed out/anxious fans

 

We may escape relegation but my god, this job is huge. 
 

I don’t particularly mind if we do go down to be honest. I mean it may mean the PL cook the books, or perhaps we don’t become a trophy winning success, but when I take time to reflect I think, well so what? It would be nice, but if we go down, all it means is that we’re supporting a team that plays in a different league. I’ll still support them. They may come back up, they may not, being a football fan essentially is a silly affliction, but it’s nice to just be able to follow them properly again. Cursed club that we are.

 

 

[duo]

I agree on the last part that we're a cursed club. Our luck is shocking.

[HaydnNUFC]

It's all stemmed from circa 2015, certainly from 2015-16 imo; the mess the playing squad is in or has been:

 

- Daddled on appointing a manager when Pardew left, Charnley/Ashley sounds out Steve McClaren who turns us down, they then settle on McClaren to the point of waiting until the end of 2014-15 for him to be available despite managers such as Galtier and Tuchel being linked, the latter later saying he would've been very interested in the job. So we write off the 2nd half of 2014-15 and give it to John Carver, whose incompetence was outrageously to the point of taking us from 9th to almost being relegated on the last day of the season.

 

- McClaren ends up being appointed despite the fact that his Derby side imploded in the 2nd half of the season, going from 1st to 8th.

 

- Decent signings on paper or in theory were made; Wijnaldum, Mbemba, Mitrovic and Thauvin. Once struggling in January we then again made okay signings, Shelvey, Townsend and the infamous Saivet.

 

- McClaren fails, goes on a run of 7 losses in his last 12. We wait too long to sack him, we had a 2 and a half week break in between a 5-1 loss at midtable Chelsea and a double header against Stoke and Bournemouth. 

 

- Benitez is appointed and we do improve but far too late. We go down.

 

- We sell £80m worth of players and bring in at-the-time solid upper Championship and lower PL level players for promotion. It works given our form in the first part of 2016-17. 

 

- January 2017 was when the Benitez-Ashley relationship started to deteriorate. Benitez wanted Loftus Cheek and Townsend in during this window but we brought in no one.

 

- We limp over the promotion line and win the league due to Brighton's implosion. So for the August 2017 window, we still have all of our promotion team more or less but with added Joselu, Merino, Murphy and Manquillo. 

 

- Fast forward to now, the bulk of that promotion side is still stinking up a lot of our 25 man squad space, now all 5 years older and after the objective they were signed for in 2016 was achieved.

 

We need full pelt surgery or just demolition of this squad whatever league we're in when the summer comes. Hopefully its in the Premier League, as there's no guarantees whatsoever down in that other dogshit, sluggish league.

[Jackie Broon]

1 minute ago, duo said:

I agree on the last part that we're a cursed club. Our luck is shocking.

 

We've stayed up the past two seasons on luck alone, our performances really haven't merited it.

[GWN]

Ok now we have a sniff 8

[Karjala]

Right now, 8. Lose to Watford and i can't see anything but guaranteed relegation. Beat Watford and i'll go to 6.

[Slim]

If Newcastle get relgated this season I will post a video of me brushing my teeth with my spunk.

[McCormick]

You’d do that anyway.

[STM]

Yeah it's kinda weird that he went straight to that. He will insist on a cock as a toothbrush next.

[NEEJ]

Definitely already in his camera roll.

[Slim]

1 minute ago, NEEJ said:

Definitely already in his camera roll.

Lol

[Yorkie]

On 11/01/2022 at 17:42, HaydnNUFC said:

It's all stemmed from circa 2015, certainly from 2015-16 imo; the mess the playing squad is in or has been:

 

- Daddled on appointing a manager when Pardew left, Charnley/Ashley sounds out Steve McClaren who turns us down, they then settle on McClaren to the point of waiting until the end of 2014-15 for him to be available despite managers such as Galtier and Tuchel being linked, the latter later saying he would've been very interested in the job. So we write off the 2nd half of 2014-15 and give it to John Carver, whose incompetence was outrageously to the point of taking us from 9th to almost being relegated on the last day of the season.

 

- McClaren ends up being appointed despite the fact that his Derby side imploded in the 2nd half of the season, going from 1st to 8th.

 

- Decent signings on paper or in theory were made; Wijnaldum, Mbemba, Mitrovic and Thauvin. Once struggling in January we then again made okay signings, Shelvey, Townsend and the infamous Saivet.

 

- McClaren fails, goes on a run of 7 losses in his last 12. We wait too long to sack him, we had a 2 and a half week break in between a 5-1 loss at midtable Chelsea and a double header against Stoke and Bournemouth. 

 

- Benitez is appointed and we do improve but far too late. We go down.

 

- We sell £80m worth of players and bring in at-the-time solid upper Championship and lower PL level players for promotion. It works given our form in the first part of 2016-17. 

 

- January 2017 was when the Benitez-Ashley relationship started to deteriorate. Benitez wanted Loftus Cheek and Townsend in during this window but we brought in no one.

 

- We limp over the promotion line and win the league due to Brighton's implosion. So for the August 2017 window, we still have all of our promotion team more or less but with added Joselu, Merino, Murphy and Manquillo. 

 

- Fast forward to now, the bulk of that promotion side is still stinking up a lot of our 25 man squad space, now all 5 years older and after the objective they were signed for in 2016 was achieved.

 

We need full pelt surgery or just demolition of this squad whatever league we're in when the summer comes. Hopefully its in the Premier League, as there's no guarantees whatsoever down in that other dogshit, sluggish league.

 

Everything you've said there is obviously true but I think the biggest sliding-door moment comes at the end of 2017/18.

 

That's where an upward-bending curve suddenly starts pointing downward. The transfer policy totally bollocksed us that summer, cos that's the moment we're all referring to when we talk about how Ritchie, Gayle, Clark etc should have left. Instead they stayed and again we just plugged gaps with short-termers like Rondon/Kenedy/Ki and cheap punts like Muto and Schar. Obviously one or two of them turned out pretty well but it wasn't the 'bolting the horse on' that it needed to be, it was only getting us another lower mid-table finish. How he managed to convince them to make a genuinely progressive signing in the form of Almiron is a mystery; a too-little-too-late outlier of the Ashley regime. (The signings under Bruce barely count as progressive because of Bruce). 

 

If the takeover happens after 2017/18, we build on the momentum and who knows what happens?

 

Still, that 'downward curve' could still have been rescued had the takeover come at the end of 18/19 or even after 19/20. Instead it came a few months into 21/22 and it's very plausible it's simply fallen too far to get turned around and over the bread line in one campaign. That's the scale of the job they've all got. 

[HaydnNUFC]

10 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

 

Everything you've said there is obviously true but I think the biggest sliding-door moment comes at the end of 2017/18.

 

That's where an upward-bending curve suddenly starts pointing downward. The transfer policy totally bollocksed us that summer, cos that's the moment we're all referring to when we talk about how Ritchie, Gayle, Clark etc should have left. Instead they stayed and again we just plugged gaps with short-termers like Rondon/Kenedy/Ki and cheap punts like Muto and Schar. Obviously one or two of them turned out pretty well but it wasn't the 'bolting the horse on' that it needed to be, it was only getting us another lower mid-table finish. How he managed to convince them to make a genuinely progressive signing in the form of Almiron is a mystery; a too-little-too-late outlier of the Ashley regime. (The signings under Bruce barely count as progressive because of Bruce). 

 

If the takeover happens after 2017/18, we build on the momentum and who knows what happens?

 

Still, that 'downward curve' could still have been rescued had the takeover come at the end of 18/19 or even after 19/20. Instead it came a few months into 21/22 and it's very plausible it's simply fallen too far to get turned around and over the bread line in one campaign. That's the scale of the job they've all got. 

 

Agree 100%. You can look at the end of 17/18, 18/19, perhaps 19/20 to all kick on from. But I've always had the view that all this crap has stemmed from relegation in 2016. Rafa would've certainly stayed and we had become a good side towards the end of that campaign despite it being too late to save ourselves due to the incompetence and joke that was McClaren's belated sacking. But would Townsend, Wijnaldum, Sissoko et al all left had we stayed up, with Benitez in charge? The reconstruction in the summer 2016 window would've been with higher quality players due to being a PL Benitez managed Newcastle. The only sticking point here is Ashley, as (I've gotten this from Mark Douglas' book) the policy after relegation in the summer window was 'whatever Rafa wants, Rafa gets' then once promotion was achieved or looked likely Ashley proceeded to revert to type. Alas, January 2017 and all the windows that followed. 

 

After relegation, Wijnaldum, Sissoko, Janmaat and Townsend all left as players of their (at the time) quality would've done. We then underwent Benitez' policy of players whom had Championship experience within the previous 5 years and were affordable or had low release clauses (hence the bids for Knockeart, Forestieri et cetera). Most of the players bought within that policy are still here now and have been here for far too long. 

[toon25]

Great posts Haydn and Yorkie 

 

 

[joeyt]

relegate them imo

 

 

 

[nufc123]

Down. 10

[La Parka]

RIP 

[xLiaaamx]

10, lock. Fuck off. 

[Lush Vlad]

Down. We’re fucking awful. Fragile as fuck, can’t defend a lead, never look like scoring. Can’t even beat this shower of shite, then what chance have you got?

[Wandy]

Up to a nine. Unless they spend £200m this week and boy, it would need to be money well spent.

[buzz]

10. It's over. 

 

One win all season fgs, it's a formality. 

 

 

[Decky]

If this team stays up the league needs a revamp because this team is fucking dog shit. Can we even improve it that much in this window? We need a whole new defence and midfield. 1 CB and 1 CM won't plug the gapping holes in this side. 

[Robster]

I can't be optimistic any more I'm sad to say.

We will never get enough confidence to hold onto a lead and win.